Agricultural economics
& computational modelling
Publications & presentations
The selected papers below cover policy modelling, uncertainty, and collective choice. The full list also includes reports and presentations. You can find my work on Google Scholar and ORCID.
Johannes Ziesmer
A Bayesian framework for estimating policy impacts in a general equilibrium, with an application to identifying sectors for sustainable development.
Malte Braack, Christian Henning, and Johannes Ziesmer
Studies pure strategy equilibria in legislative bargaining models where voting behaviour follows stochastic utility maximisation.
Johannes Ziesmer, Ding Jin, Sneha D. Thube, and Christian Henning
Uses metamodels and Bayesian estimation to calibrate dynamic CGE baselines to projections.
Johannes Ziesmer, Ding Jin, Askar Mukashov, and Christian Henning
Combines Bayesian model averaging with metamodels to incorporate uncertainty about model choice into policy analysis.
Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 20, Article 2.
Agribusiness, 40(2), 458-483.
Pure strategy Nash equilibria for bargaining models of collective choice
International Journal of Game Theory, 53, 373-421.
A Dynamic Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models
Computational Economics, 61, 1331-1368.
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 87, Article 101591.
Social Networks, 58, 78-104.
PLoS ONE, 9(4), e93860.
Uncertainty Quantification for Legal AI
Manuscript.
A comparison of metamodeling techniques for the simulation of CGE model outputs
Ongoing research.
Global trade networks as a commitment device in international climate policy? – a metamodeling approach assessing multi-layer trade networks as determinants of abatement cost spillovers of national carbon emission reductions
Revision under review at Computational Economics.
Institutional foundations of evidence-based and participatory policy processes in Africa: Empirical application to the CAADP process
Contribution to ATOR 2026.
International Bargaining on Moral Values in Climate Clubs
Ongoing research.
The F2F strategy in the EU Green Deal – An optimal implementation?
Ongoing research.
Where Banzhaf Meets Nash and Black: A Legislative Bargaining Foundation of a Generalized Banzhaf Value
Ongoing research.
Aquaponic Systems for Small-Scale Farming in Africa: Potential and Challenges
Moving the Technology Frontiers in African Agrifood Systems. ReSAKSS 2025 Annual Trends and Outlook Report.
Moving the Technology Frontiers in African Agrifood Systems. ReSAKSS 2025 Annual Trends and Outlook Report.
Digital playground for policy decision making
DAMDID/RCDL 2018 · CEUR Workshop Proceedings 2277, pp. 174–180.
Modeling and evaluation of political processes: A new quantitative approach
Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa · Springer.
Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa · Springer.
Kampala CAADP Series, Country Diagnostics Brochure · 1 · AKADEMIYA2063.
Enhancing the Effectiveness and Impacts of Public Agricultural Expenditure under CAADP
Kampala Policy Brief Series · 10 · AKADEMIYA2063.
Modelling the impacts of policy interventions for food systems transformation in Indonesia
Governance and Policy Support Report · FAO.
Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories.
Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories.
NEPS Survey Paper No. 89 · Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories.
Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories.
2. Nährstoffbericht des Landes Schleswig-Holstein
Ministerium für Energiewende, Landwirtschaft, Umwelt und ländliche Räume des Landes Schleswig-Holstein.
Applying Meta-modeling for extended CGE-modeling: Sampling techniques and potential application
Agricultural Policy Working Paper Series · WP2018-03 · Kiel University.
Political power in non-cooperative legislative bargaining games: A modified baron-ferejohn game with application to decision-making in the common agricultural policy of the european union
Agricultural Policy Working Paper Series · WP2017-01 · University of Kiel.
Identifying key sectors and key policies of pro poor growth: An integrated approach linking a bayesian econometric model with a dynamic general equilibrium approach
PEBAP Working Paper No. 23.
Implementing CAADP 2025 in Senegal: Identifying key sectors and policies promoting pro-poor growth
IFPRI-Policy Brief, Washington D. C..
Implementing CAADP-2025 in Uganda – Is there a convergence of ideas among stakeholders?
IFPRI Policy Brief · International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
A online tool to collect ego-centric network data
Working paper of Teilprojekt 4.1, Fokus-Verbundprojekt 4, gesundheitliche Bewertung und Konsumverhalten, University of Kiel.
Regionales Ökologisch-polit-ökonomisches Verbundmodell zur polit-ökonomischen analyse nachhaltiger Landnutzungspolitiken in Schleswig-Holstein
Working Paper, Abteilung Agrarpolitik, University of Kiel.
A mean field theory approach to farm exit, diversification and investment decisions
ADVANCED-EVAL Working Paper Series · WP5-7 · Institute of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Germany.
Application of a micro-macro linked ABM-CGE model to analyze rural development in high and low performing rural regions in Poland and Slovakia
ADVANCED-EVAL Working Paper Series · Regional Report RR5-1 [D 23] · Institute of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Germany.
Belief formation in communication networks and social capital
ADVANCED-EVAL Working Paper Series · WP4-15 · Institute of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Germany.
Model based ex-ante evaluation of RD policies: Derivation and application of a micro-macro linked ABM-CGE model
Project Report, EU-Project ADVANCED-EVAL · Institute of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Germany.
Presented in Webinar Session VI of the Kampala CAADP Series, AKADEMIYA2063, online, 18 June.
Global Trade Networks as a Commitment Device in International Climate Policy? – A Metamodeling Approach Assessing Multi-Layer Trade Networks as Determinants of Abatement Cost Spillovers of National Carbon Emission Reductions
Organised session “Machine Learning & Economic Modelling” at the XVIII Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Bonn, Germany, 27 August.
Key sectors of sustainable development: A Bayesian framework estimating policy impacts in a general equilibrium
Presented at AgEconMeet 2022, Göttingen.
A generalized voting power index: A theoretical conception and applied computation for a modified baron-ferejohn legislative bargaining game
Presented at the 2019 Meeting of the European Public Choice Society in Jerusalem, Israel.
Assessing policy failure in a general political equilibrium framework
Presented at the 2019 Meeting of the European Public Choice Society in Jerusalem, Israel.
Narratives in Economic Modelling: A New Kid on the Block?
Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (GTAP), Warsaw, Poland.
Assessing policy failure in a general political equilibrium framework: Derivation and application of a new CGPE-approach
presented at the 21. Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (GTAP) in Cartagena, Colombia.
Computation of equilibrium of the baron-ferejohn legislative bargaining game
presented at the European Public Choice in Rom, Italy.
Digital playground for policy decision making
presented at the ’Data Analytics and Management in Data Intensive Domaine (DAMDID)’ in Moscow, Russia.
Key Sectors – Key Policies: Challenges in Estimating and Validating a Policy-Impact Function
Presented at the 21st Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (GTAP), Cartagena, Colombia.
Verwendung von Programmiersprachentechniken in der Sozialwahltheorie
presented at the 35. Jahrestreffen der GI-Fachgruppe ’Programmiersprachen und Rechenkonzepte’ in Bad Honnef, Germany.
When science meets politics: Introduction of the CAADP policy tool kit
Presented at: Prä-Konferenz-Workshop III ’Political Economy and Behavioral Economics on Development Policies and Policy Process’ at the 58. Jahrestagung der GeWiSoLa in Kiel.
Key sectors and key policies for an effective PPG-strategy in ghana, senegal, and uganda
presented at the 2017 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Maputo, Mozambique.
Whither participation? Evaluating participatory policy processes with the CGPE approach: The case of CAADP in Malawi
presented at the 2017 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Maputo, Mozambique.
Conception of CAADP policy lab. Presentation of the policy-tool CAADP policy lab
presented at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Future GFSS-extensions. Presentation of the policy-tool CAADP policy lab
presented at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Identifying key sectors and key policies of pro poor growth: An integrated approach linking a bayesian econometric model with a dynamic general equilibrium approach
presented at the Self Organized Session ’Modelling and Evaluation of Development Policies and Policy Processes: The PEBAP-Project during the GEWISOLA.
Identifying key sectors and key policies of pro poor growth: An integrated approach linking a bayesian econometric model with dynamic general equilibrium approach
presented at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Presentation of the policy-tool CAADP policy lab
presented at United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
Theoretical framework of the policy-tool CAADP policy lab
presented at International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
What drives participatory and evidence-based policy processes in development politics: Grassroot activities, scientific knowledge or donor money? A comparative policy network approach applied to Ghana, Senegal and Uganda
presented at the Interactive Workshop ’Modelling and Evaluation of CAADP Policies and Policy Processes’ in Dakar, Senegal.
Analytical Toolkit - Schafft Wissen!
präsentiert auf der Eröffnungsveranstaltung des Promotionsschwerpunktes "Ein Dritter Weg zur Ernährung der Einen Welt" in Kiel.
Introducing to CAADP-LAB: A Policy-Tool-Kit for Evaluation and Formulation of CAADP Policy Options
Presented at the Interactive Workshop "Making CAADP Work in Uganda" in Entebbe, Uganda.
Introducing to CAADP-LAB: A Tool Kit Facilitating Participatory and Evidence-Based Agricultural Processes in Africa
Presented at the ReSAKSS Board Meeting in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia.
Introduction to CAADP-LAB: A policy tool kit for evaluation and formulation of CAADP policy options
presented at the Interactive Workshop "Making CAADP Work in Senegal in Saly, Senegal.
Participant Expert Views on Policy Growth and Growth-Poverty Relations in Ghana
Presented at the Interactive Workshop "Making CAADP Work in Ghana", Akosombo, Ghana.
A Bayesian rationality to follow opinion leaders? Belief formation and social influence in networks and their impact on macro-behavior
Paper presented at the XXXIII Sunbelt International Network for Social Network Analysis (INSNA), Hamburg, Germany.
Micro-macro-linked ABM-FHM-CGE models for senegal, ghana and uganda
presented at the 1. Progress Seminar ot the BMZ-Project PEBAP.
Public evaluation and political acceptance of sustainable land use polices: An econometric application to biogas subsidization in germany
Paper accepted for presentation at the 2013 AAEA & CAES Joint Annual Meeting in Washington, D. C., USA.
The Co-evolution of policy networks and political knowledge: An econometric approach to the emergence of local elite networks and government performance
Paper presented at the Second World Congress of the Public Choice Societies, Miami, USA.
Assessing political performance gaps: Application of an evolutionary CGPE-approach to CAADP in Malawi
Paper presented at the International Workshop jointly organized with IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) ’Modelling and Evaluation of CAADP - Policies: Theory, Methods and Application’, Kiel.
Modelling and evaluation of agricultural policy applying a micro-macro linked ABM-CGE approach
Paper presented at the International Workshop jointly organized with IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) ’Modelling and Evaluation of CAADP - Policies: Theory, Methods and Application’, Kiel.
The emergence of local elite networks and political performance: A combination of an agent-based and an econometric approach
Poster presented at the 4th Annual Political Networks Conference at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Elite networks, political belief formation and government performance: An agent-based approach to a general political economy equilibrium
Paper presented at the 3rd Annual Political Networks Conference, Duke University, USA.
The impact of local elite networks on policy learning and government capture in decentralized and centralized systems: Simulation analyses based on a computable general political economy equilibrium
Paper presented at the International Workshop on Advances in Agent-Based Computational Economics - ADACE 2010, ZiF, Bielefeld University, Germany.
Ecological modeling of macrobehavior - a micro-macro linked ABM-CGE approach with applications to rural development
Paper presented at the EU-Project ADVANCED-EVAL Workshop ’Networks as Determinants of Economic and Political Behavior’, Kiel, Germany.
Networks, belief formation and diversification of the farm sector: A micro-macro linked ABM-CGE approach
Paper presented at the EU-Project ADVANCED-EVAL Workshop ’Networks as Determinants of Economic and Political Behavior’ in Kiel, Germany.